COMensarations
Sunday, February 05, 2006
Thanks, Syria
Justification to attack Syria.
Seems that the people who attacked, sacked and burned the Danish and Norwegan embassies in Damsacus, Syria, may have given legal justification for the United States forces across the border in Iraq to invade Syria.
As someone points out, Article V of the NATO treat, of which Denmark, Norway and the United States are all signators, says that an attack on any of the members of NATO is an attack on ALL the members. And embassies are considered the territory of the country they represent. Therefore, depending on how much complicity Baby Dictator Assad’s government had in the attacks, we’d be justified to change their government as well. Just like we did in Afghanistan and Iraq.
I don’t think we’ll do it just yet. Not immediately. Maybe around March-April timeframe. The weather is better then. Right now its a still a bit chilly.
I’m confident we’ve been well aware that Syria has held Saddam Hussein’s WMDs since before the invasion of Iraq and his overthrow. This recent business of it being reported by members of his former government has only been part of the slow build-up of justification for our going after Syria.
Then there is the fact that a lot of these outsider illegal combatants that keep cropping up in Iraq are coming there through Syria. We had several engagements with them. And, as I recall, one with Syrian military forces, along the border. Eliminating Syria’s Ba’athist government will be a big step in eliminating trouble-makers getting into Iraq.
I expect that there will be a near-simultaneous action by Israel to deal with Iran’s growing nuclear weapon program. Once the Syrian airspace is clear of hostile aircraft and SAMs, it’ll be a clear shot to Iran from there. I do believe that is why they bought all those ‘bunker-buster’ bombs from us about the time of the Iraq invasion. Additionally, the Israelis have procured long-range attack aircraft capable of delivering such weapons to Iran. They are well prepared to deal with another surgical strike, similar to their strike against Iraq to forestall Hussein’s nuclear weapons program back then.
If I’m reading things right, Iran is hoping to have its first nuclear weapon sometime this year, unless they are stopped. And if, after such an attack by the Israelis, Iran’s government decides to attack the US force in Iraq for an action that Israel took, it’ll be too bad for Iran. I think the Navy and Air Force can eat them alive if their forces show themselves as intent upon attacking US in Iraq.
A key indicator that things are going to get hot in the not-too-distant-future will be a signficant increase in Naval and Air Force assets to the area. I suspect there will be some ancillary incidents to justify this sort of build-up.
The snit that the Moslems have got themselves into over some cartoons has played VERY well into the hands of anyone who wants to take out Syria. And likely Iran as well. So well that I’d wager someone will accuse Karl Rove of orchestrating it, as far back as last Summer.
Should be another interesting year....
UPDATE ‘Not So Fast’ [061702 Feb 06]: Seems that Article V of the NATO Treaty specifies that attacks must be perpetrated against NATO members or their forces ONLY in certain geographic locations, e.g., within the national boundaries in Europe, somewhere in the North Atlantic or the Mediterranean Sea, etc. Attacks on overseas embassies do not qualify.
Oh well. In due time, I’m confident we’ll see that too. I have little confidence in the Muslims being able to rein in their more obnoxious members. And I think the latter are gaining more adherents everytime nobody does anything to counter them.
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