COMensarations
Saturday, November 11, 2006
Thoughts on the Forthcoming Rout
History repeats itself; Viet Nam in the Middle East.
Many people were intrigued by the Democrats alleged plan to deal with the War on Terror’s campaign in Iraq. It was supposedly (1) a secret, (2) would not be a ‘cut and run’ approach and (3) would solve all our problems.
Guess what. They lied....
Turns out it was not so ‘secret’ after all. Indeed, George McGovern, the failed Democratic candidate for the presidency in 1972 had even published a book on it.
Why is George McGovern significant? Well, because yesterday, 62 members of the next Congress met with him. And, according to this report he’s supposed to go to Washington to lecture the Congress on how his plan works.
His plan, as I see it at this point, is simply the sort of ‘cut and run’ that he espoused for Viet Nam. And that the Republicans, lead by Nixon—for a while—finally accepted.
So, if it was published in a book, it obviously wasn’t any secret. The only secret was that the Democrats lied about not wanting to ‘cut and run’ and leave Iraq in an open civil war....and with much more numerous dead than would have been if we stayed to keep the factions more effectively settled down and moving towards a democratic form of government.
As it is, if the Democrats do follow McGovern’s advice, it will be nothing more than what happened in Viet Nam. Anyone see a real ‘democracy’ in Viet Nam? I didn’t think so.
As for solving all our problems, McGovern’s, and the electorate that put the Democrats in power to do this, solution is likely going to increase the problems. In more bloody ways than one.
Why do I say this? Because I’m something of a student of history. And being a better student than many, I learn from past errors.
Here’s a scenario I offer for your consideration.
[1] Democrats adopt McGovern’s ‘cut and run’ policy.
[2] US forces leave Iraq. Possibly turning things over to the UN.
[3] The UN forces, like those in Lebanon today, do NOTHING. Just like they are doing in Lebanon today.
[4] UN forces leave Iraq.
[5] General ‘cleansing’ of Sunni by Shia begins in earnest. Shia being the more numerous.
[6] Shia, backed by Iran, gain control of Iraq.
[7] Iran, feeling strong with its new acquisition and their nuclear capabilities, start pressuring the Sunni in Syria and Saudi Arabia for concessions.
[8] Likelihood of general conflict between Sunni and Shia rolls across the Middle East. This is why all those Sunni states in the Middle East suddenly, as of last week, announced THEY were going to start their own nuclear programs.
[9] Iran, feeling strong with its more advanced nuclear program, e.g., they’ll probably have a working weapon within 12 months, decides to demonstrate their religious righteousness by using said weapon. Probably against US.
[10] Having lost a logistical base in the Middle East from which to fight against Iran with conventional forces, the Democrats will have to respond SOMEHOW to such an attack. What will they do with most of US howling for retaliation? Three guesses. First two don’t count. Iran will become a glass-paved parking lot. And all that blood will be on the hands of those who put the Democrats in power, last Tuesday.
Welcome to the Hobbesian world.
So....
Was the Democrats plan ‘secret’? No.
Is it something other than ‘cut and run’? Not if McGovern is to be believed and his plan is adopted by the Democrats. Even with some modifications.
Would it solve all our problems regarding Iraq? Hardly. It actually makes things much worse, if this scenario, which looks highly plausible, comes to pass.
Pray that I am wrong.....I do.....
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Years ago, (1995, about), there was a riveting series on PBS called Battlefield. It gave a clinical analysis of several WWII battles, including who the key players were. One of the things we noticed as the series progressed was that whenever the politicians tried to take charge, things went badly on the battlefield. It didn’t matter which side.
Politicians either tried to direct the activities directly, or selected military leaders based on their political attitudes and loyalty, not on their military experience and ability. Both were bad.
However, whenever the politicians left the military alone things went better.
We have a situation where the politicians are demanding time tables on when we’re going to get out. They should be deciding how to know we’ve won. Usually it’s when the other side cries, “Uncle!” and signs on the dotted line.
In this case it might be when every one on the other side is romping with 72 virgins in paradise.
on 11/11 at 01:10 PM